Last Strategy radar > Jan, Feb and 2013 outlook

Highlights from the beginning of this year include the NSW and TAS bushfires, as well as Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which remind the insurance industry that there will no be reprieve in natural disasters and not matter the “scepticism on climate change” the cost of such events on our infrastructure is not going away. Which is why businesses are actively lobbying for investments.

Two ironic post-GFC twists in finance: the US Justice Department is finally suing Standard and Poor’s for their calamitous ratings of exotic products; and in Australia independent mortgage brokers Aussie Home Loans and Yellow Brick Road are now backed by CBA and Macquarie (after asserting their “raison d’être” as true alternatives to those banks), showing that the Australian major banks truly dominate their market and that any competitor is going to have a pretty hard time to challenge the oligopoly. Those 2 unrelated events show the ongoing tensions between the intent to reform the financial system, and the reality of adjustments that have not truly addressed its systemic issues, nor altered its nature.

The macroeconomic front might start to show signs of a ‘betterment’ expected in the 2nd half of 2013, as forecasted by quite a few economists. This is the theme detailed in the appendix: “more sunny breaks and fewer storms” – including a pretty interesting introduction to the ‘Debt Supercycle’ and “long term commodity cycles” . Whether this prediction will hold true, only the future will tell. One thing is sure however in Australia is that 2013 will be a year marked by 9 months of federal election campaigning. So now that we have this covered, we can calmly wait for the next black swans…

This is the last ‘Corporate Strategy radar’ in its current form… over to the Strategic Innovation…


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